2005年江西晚稻飞虱大发生气象成因初步分析   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

杜筱玲  郭瑞鸽  魏丽 《气象与减灾研究》2006,29(2):48-52

介绍了江西省稻飞虱历年发生概况,以及2005年江西稻飞虱发生特点,并从2005年副高脊线位置与飞虱早迁、汛期降雨峰值与飞虱多迁、台风环流与飞虱秋季回迁、夏秋季温湿条件与飞虱生长繁殖的关系等方面,进行了稻飞虱大发生的气象成因分析,力图为今后建立稻飞虱发生发展气象预测模型,开展灾害监测与预报提供依据.分析结果表明,2005年江西省晚稻飞虱具有发生时间早、面积广、为害重等特点,为历史罕见大爆发;稻飞虱主要来源于外地迁入,有春季迁入及秋季回迁2种;副高脊线位置偏南,西南气流强盛,导致春季气候适宜,暖湿气流活跃,强降水多,有利春季稻飞虱早迁、多迁、大量迁,早稻发生后的残留虫量是晚稻飞虱大发生的虫源基础;7～10月台风频频影响江西,特别是后期台风的影响,加速了秋季稻飞虱随东北气流的回迁,为晚稻飞虱大爆发起到促进作用;盛夏不热且秋季不凉的气象条件,有利于当地稻飞虱的生长繁殖,导致飞虱代数多.  相似文献   

基于PC-CCA方法的雷暴日数资料序列延长模式试验     

罗树如  王欢 《气象与减灾研究》2006,29(4):17-20

为了给防雷工程设计、雷电损害风险评估和建筑物站址选择提供更加科学准确的年平均雷暴日资料,引入主成分典型相关分析(PC-CCA)方法,建立了月雷暴日资料延长模式,用多年人工观测雷暴日资料,对江西省区域内闪电定位网探测的月雷暴日数场序列进行订正延长试验。试验结果表明,模式中提取5个主分量的总体效果最好,PC-CCA方法用于月雷暴日资料的延长是可行的;在此基础上,进行各月累加平均求取年平均雷暴日资料也是可行的。  相似文献   

气候变迁下的古雷电印象浅析     

高燚 《气象研究与应用》2006,27(1):48-51

探讨和总结了古雷电研究的4种方法:①地质记录中的古气候标志方法;②氧同位素测量古温度方法;③冰川冰期与气候冷暖方法;④史料记载的研究方法。应用这4种方法分别对史前气候变迁下的古雷电进行描述,然后再从史料记载中,浓缩了古雷电的记录,分析了古雷电印象。  相似文献   

谈谈如何避免高空观测记录错情     

黄梅艳 《气象研究与应用》2006,27(2):50-51

对使用59-701微机数据处理系统以后高空观测记录容易出错的环节进行归纳和分析,并提出相应的解决措施。  相似文献   

贵州夏季降水异常的环流特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

伍红雨  王谦谦 《高原气象》2006,25(6):1120-1126

利用美国NCEP/NCAR月平均高度及风场再分析资料和中国月平均降水资料,分析了贵州多、少雨年夏季环流的平均距平场特征.结果表明:贵州多、少雨年夏季环流具有明显的不同特征.多雨年南亚高压偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压较常年偏强,脊线明显偏南偏西,且影响贵州的印度西南季风、西太平洋副热带季风较常年也偏强,影响贵州的中、东路冷空气强.少雨年西太平洋副热带高压明显偏强,脊线较常年明显偏北,其它环流特征与多雨年相反.  相似文献   

2005年6月22日～23日酷热高温天气分析预报     

庞转棠  王正旺  魏建军 《山西气象》2006,(3):10-11,14

2005年6月22日～23日长治市出现了历史罕见的高温酷热天气,针对此次过程,本文分析了500hPa、地面天气形势的演变特征。对高温强度的分布进行了探讨,为预报高温提供了气候背景,并提出了高温天气预报的着眼点。充分应用数值预报产品、850hPa高空指标站及本站14时气温资料的高温预报指标,在21日准确及时的发布了高温预警信号,提出了御防高温的措施建议,起到了积极的防灾减灾气象保障作用。  相似文献   

洛阳市近50年气温变化特征     

马淑玲  盛建萍等 《河南气象》2001,(3):24-25

根据洛阳气温资料,利用曲线图分析了洛阳市近50年的气温变化特征和规律,得出了洛阳市近50年的气候由“冬冷夏热”逐渐向“冬暖夏凉”转变的结论。  相似文献   

2D Monte Carlo versus 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo health risk assessment   总被引：15，自引：4，他引：11  

E. Kentel  M. M. Aral 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(1):86-96

Risk estimates can be calculated using crisp estimates of the exposure variables (i.e., contaminant concentration, contact rate, exposure frequency and duration, body weight, and averaging time). However, aggregate and cumulative exposure studies require a better understanding of exposure variables and uncertainty and variability associated with them. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies use probability distributions for one or more variables of the risk equation in order to quantitatively characterize variability and uncertainty. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA) is one of the advanced modeling approaches that may be used to conduct PRA studies. In this analysis the variables of the risk equation along with the parameters of these variables (for example mean and standard deviation for a normal distribution) are described in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). A variable described in this way is called a second order random variable. Significant data or considerable insight to uncertainty associated with these variables is necessary to develop the appropriate PDFs for these random parameters. Typically, available data and accuracy and reliability of such data are not sufficient for conducting a reliable 2D MCA. Thus, other theories and computational methods that propagate uncertainty and variability in exposure and health risk assessment are needed. One such theory is possibility analysis based on fuzzy set theory, which allows the utilization of incomplete information (incomplete information includes vague and imprecise information that is not sufficient to generate probability distributions for the parameters of the random variables of the risk equation) together with expert judgment. In this paper, as an alternative to 2D MCA, we are proposing a 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo Analysis (2D FMCA) to overcome this difficulty. In this approach, instead of describing the parameters of PDFs used in defining the variables of the risk equation as random variables, we describe them as fuzzy numbers. This approach introduces new concepts and risk characterization methods. In this paper we provide a comparison of these two approaches relative to their computational requirements, data requirements and availability. For a hypothetical case, we also provide a comperative interpretation of the results generated.  相似文献   

非绝热二维界面流的稳定性     

张平周  欧阳首承 《成都信息工程学院学报》1990,(Z1)

本文对扰动量方程引进了相应的简单的非绝热作用,分析了二维界面流的稳定性。结果发现:非绝热加热作用是影响稳定性的重要因子,尤为下行波急流的左侧,加热作用与切变均能导致不稳定。  相似文献   

Remote Sensing and GIS Application to Superlarge Mineral Deposits Prediction in Western Slope of Great Xing''an Mountains, China     

Chen Shengbo 《世界地质(英文版)》2000,3(1)

Supported by Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the multi - source geoscience information in the Western Slope of Great Xing' an Mountains are visual analyzed, including remote sensing data, magnetic data, gravity data and gamma - ray spectrometry data. Thus the structural framework is built up. And the remote sensing image pattern of mineral deposits is established by comparing the remote sensing geological features of five large or superlarge mineral deposits located in the same metallogenic belt in China, Russia and Mongolia. Guided by the image pattern, seven prospective locations of large or superlarge mineral resource are delineated.  相似文献